Bellard C, Thuiller W, Leroy B, Genovesi P, Bakkenes M, Courchamp F (2013) Will climate change promote future invasions? Glob Change Biol 19(12):3740–3748. PDF.
Summary
Biological invasion is one of the greatest global threats to biodiversity, and invasions may spread more rapidly with climate and land use changes. But the amount of future risk differ across the globe, and for different taxonomic groups. Using species distribution models, this paper aims to predict the combined effects of climate change and land use change on future range sizes of 100 of the world’s worst invasive species. In the next 50 - 100 years, climate and land use change will likely cause drastic species range shifts, with future hotspots of invasion in parts of Europe and in northeastern North America. Other regions may lose a significant number of currently invasive species. Range size projections also varied by species group. Overall, invasive amphibian and bird distributions are projected to decrease, whereas aquatic and terrestrial invertebrate distributions are projected to increase.
Take home points
The combined impacts of climate change and land use change will vary by taxa
Amphibians and birds will see a reduced range whereas aquatic invertebrates, aquatic plants, micro-organisms, and terrestrial invertebrates will see a range expansion.
The most likely future hotspots of invasion in Europe and northeastern North America
Management implications
The Northeast is and will continue to be a hotspot for invasive plants and invertebrates - both terrestrial and aquatic.
In the northeast, talking to neighbors to the south could help to identify invasive species to watch for as well as best management practices for these future invaders.
Keywords
Novel Introduction Pathways; Shifting Seasons; Range Expansion; Model; Risk Assessment