Predicting plant invasions in an era of global change
Bradley, B. A., Blumenthal, D. M., Wilcove, D. S., & Ziska, L. H. (2010). Predicting plant invasions in an era of global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 25(5), 310-318. PDF.
Summary
Bradley et al. (2010) reviewed the existing scientific literature to assess the influence of global change (e.g., climate change and increased carbon dioxide, nitrogen, trade, and land conversion) on future plant invasions. The authors found that responses of invasive plant species to rising temperature and altered precipitation regimes depended on the species, geographic area, and the magnitude and timing of climate change. Other aspects of global change, such as increased carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and land use, facilitated invasion because many invasive species thrive in nutrient-rich and/or disturbed areas. Global trade also promoted invasion through multiple introduction events, which increased the chances of an invasive species becoming established in new environments. In spite of these general patterns, the relationship between plant invasions, climate change, and global change is complex due to interactions between and among climate conditions and global change. Future research should focus on reducing the uncertainty in these interactions and to improve models that predict invasion risk. The knowledge gained from this research will allow managers to more effectively prioritize management decisions.
Take home points
Restoration opportunities could arise in some regions if current pools of invasive plants become less competitive with rising temperature and altered precipitation
Invasive plants generally outperform native plants when additional resources are made available, which includes rising atmospheric CO2, increased N deposition (through runoff or via the atmosphere), and disturbance.
Management implications
Shared communication about novel species arrivals and best management practices across state and jurisdictional borders will be critical for identifying new high risk species and developing management practices for novel species. As species are being monitored or controlled, adding spatial data (e.g., presence, absence, and abundance) to repositories such as EDDMapS will improve models used to predict future plant invasions. The biggest opportunities for restoration are likely to occur where disturbance land use/cover change occurs. While these changes can facilitate invasion, the abiotic environment is still suitable for the native species. Therefore, replanting regionally native (native-ish) species might confer resistance to invasion and help retain biodiversity.
Keywords
Shifting Seasons; Range Expansion; Review; Invasive Plant; Terrestrial Habitat; Risk Assessment