Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

Dullinger, I., Wessely, J., Bossdorf, O., Dawson, W., Essl, F., Gattringer, A., Klonner, G., Kreft, H., Kuttner, M., Moser, D., Pergl, J., Pysek, P., Thullier, W., van Kleunen, M., Weigelt, P., Winter, M., & Dullinger, S. 2017. Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26: 43–53. PDF.

Summary

Ornamental plants have historically been a primary pathway for the introduction of non-native species that naturalize and go on to become invasive. Most ornamental plants are unable to naturalize, but naturalization could become increasingly likely climate change. Dullinger et al. examined the potential for plants currently used as ornamentals in Europe to become naturalized with climate change. The study species included 783 plants that are currently planted, but have not nautralized in Europe, but have naturalized in other parts of the world. The potential of these plants to naturalize in Europe under current and future climate was estimated by linking occurrences in native and naturalized areas globally with the environment in those locations. Climate change increased the geographic extents that most species could naturalize in Europe, especially species from temperate regions of the world. Since the target plants are known to have naturalized elsewhere in the world, and some naturalized species become invasive, the range expansion represents increased potential invasion risk.

Take home points

  • Naturalized plants are likely to expand their ranges and could become increasingly problematic with climate change. 

Management implications

  • Use native species when possible in managed landscapes. This reduces the potential for problems as climate continues to change.

  • If ornamentals are desired, choose species that have been widely introduced but have not shown invasive tendencies elsewhere in the world. 

Keywords

Shifting Seasons; Range Expansion; Model; Invasive Plant; Terrestrial Habitat; Risk Assessment