Here be dragons (but are they invasive?)
Kendig, A.E., Canavan, S., Anderson, P.J., Flory, S.L., Gettys, L.A., Gordon, D.R., Iannone III, B.V., Kunzer, J.M., Petri, T., Pfingsten, I.A. and Lieurance, D., 2022. Scanning the horizon for invasive plant threats using a data-driven approach. NeoBiota, 74, pp.129-154. PDF.
Summary
Being proactive about preventing future invasions is the most effective approach to invasive species management. With climate change, many species are expanding their ranges (range-shifting species) and warm-adapted non-native species are increasingly likely to be introduced. However, as described in Beaury et al. 2021 and Bradley et al. 2022, state regulations are currently not proactive about preventing species that aren’t yet present in the state. Kendig et al. 2022 present a method for horizon scanning for high risk invasive species that could be proactively regulated. They start broadly with the CABI invasive species compendium to identify globally known invasive species. Focusing on the state of Florida, they then narrow down the list to focus on species not yet present in the state, but broadly naturalized outside of their native range. After narrowing down the list to 100 species, the team performed a rapid assessment of likelihood that each species could arrive, establish, and have impacts in Florida ecosystems. This paper introduces a new approach for developing proactive recommendations for regulation and management of potentially invasive species.
Take home points
Assessors tended to have different opinions and scores for individual species, suggesting that horizon scanning efforts should aim to have more than one assessor to account for different perspectives.
One criterion in this assessment was that species be globally widespread (based on GBIF). However, this criterion could bias future assessments towards species native to Europe due to the legacy of human colonization. In repeating this approach, it might be worth broadening the widespread criteria to focus on all regions of the world with similar climate conditions.
Management implications
For states with more neighbors to the south, the range shift listing tool can also support horizon scanning for range-shifting species.
Most high-risk species were introduced through intentional pathways, making regulation more feasible and underscoring the need for continued engagement of the ornamental plant industry.
Keywords
New Introduction Pathways, Proactive Management, Risk/Monitoring, Invasive Plant