Species Distribution Models Reveal Present and Future Marine Invasion Hotspots
How can we better prioritize where to monitor and manage marine invasives in a changing climate? Lyons et al. (2020) identify where to look for current and future invasion hotspots.
Lyons, D. A., J. B. Lowen, T. W. Therriault, D. Brickman, L. Guo, A. M. Moore, M. A. Peña, Z. Wang, and C. DiBacco. 2020. Identifying marine invasion hotspots using stacked species distribution models. Biological Invasions 22:3403–3423.
Summary
Knowing where invasive species occur is critical to allocating limited resources for early detection and control, yet comprehensive occurrence data is rare, especially in marine systems. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help fill in data gaps by predicting where invading species occur or are likely to establish. Lyons et al. (2020) built and combined SDMs for multiple invasive species in the Northwest Atlantic or Northeast Pacific to identify current hotspots of invasion in each region. Then, they projected the species distributions to 2075 using the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Their models correctly identified many current invasion hotspots. With climate change, the models predicted some expansion of invasion hotspots in the Northwest Atlantic (concentrated from MA to southern ME), but more dramatic expansion and creation of new hotspots in the Pacific.
Take home points
Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are sophisticated tools that produce easy-to-interpret outputs from incomplete data, and the resulting maps are intuitive tools for communication.
Using present-day and predicted climate conditions, combining SDMs for multiple species can help identify invasion hotspots.
With climate change, current marine invasion hotspots are likely to intensify from Massachusetts to southern Maine, with isolated spots in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
Management implications
Identifying potential hotspots helps identify areas where invasive species are most likely to cause ecological or socioeconomic harm.
Species distribution models can improve efficacy at all stages of decision making. They can help managers identify areas where species are more likely to become established and spread (early detection) and areas at high risk due to climate change.
Patterns of current and predicted marine invasive species hotspots do not closely match areas of high vessel traffic or major ports, which have previously been identified as key vectors of species introduction. Increased attention to other vectors of introduction, such as aquaculture, recreational vessels, oil platforms, trade of live organisms, and fouling (surface attaching) organisms on marine equipment and ship hulls, is needed to minimize invasion threats.
Keywords
Management Efficacy; Impact studies; Species distribution models; Climate change responses; Northwest Atlantic; Gulf of Maine; Southern New England Coast; Invasive marine species