Régnière, J., Nealis, V. and Porter, K., 2008. Climate suitability and management of the gypsy moth invasion into Canada. In Ecological Impacts of Non-Native Invertebrates and Fungi on Terrestrial Ecosystems (pp. 135-148). Springer, Dordrecht. PDF.

Summary

Climate change is expected to increase the amount of suitable habitat for gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) in Canada. Warmer temperatures will allow the insect to complete development consistently in areas that are now only marginal, but the moth will also need suitable host trees for successful establishment. In this paper, Regniere et al. combine projections of a warmer climate with land cover data to help identify regions in Canada most likely to support gypsy moth in future climate scenarios. They conclude that areas at risk of becoming climatically suitable for gypsy moth will double or triple in the next 50 years, and much of the increased risk will occur in eastern Canada where favorable forest types will become climatically susceptible. Large swaths of western Canada, especially in the Prairie Provinces, are projected to become climatically suitable, but the prairie vegetation or conifer forests are not expected to support significant gypsy moth populations, though local establishment is feasible.  

Take home points

  •  Areas in Canada at risk of becoming climatically suitable for gypsy moths are expected to double or triple over the next 50 years because of climate change.

  • Most vulnerable are deciduous or mixed deciduous / conifer forests in eastern Canada that are currently too cold for sustaining gypsy moth populations.

Management implications

  • Monitoring of un-infested hardwood/mixed forests near the current gypsy moth distribution should be increased, and plans for natural resource protection in these areas should be re-examined.  

  • Outbreaks of the moths strongly correlate with the frequency that they are caught in traps. A focus on regulating pathways of introduction during these outbreaks may help to prevent / suppress establishment in new areas.  

Keywords

Range Expansion; Model; Invasive Invertebrate; Terrestrial Habitat; Lymantria dispar; Gypsy Moth; Risk Assessment