Pathway Peril: Climate Change Will Increase Invasion Vulnerability in Protected Areas

Lieurance, D., Canavan, S., Faulkner, K.T., O’Shaughnessy, K.A., Lockwood, J.L., Parsons, E.W., Avery, J.D. and Daniel, W., 2025. Understanding and managing introduction pathways into protected areas in a changing climate. Biological Invasions, 27(2), p.74.. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-025-03534-3  

Written by Deah Lieurance and Alanna Richman, edited by Berlin Nelson

Summary 

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is an international agreement that aims to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by conserving 30% of the world’s ecosystems with a focus on biodiversity-rich areas (Target 3), managing pathways of invasive species introductions (Target 6), and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with an emphasis on nature-based solutions (Target 8). Although protected areas have long helped limit the introduction and spread of non-native species, climate change is expected to increase their vulnerability to invasion. Uncertainty about how pathways may shift in the future remains a major challenge for effective management planning in protected areas.  

Lieurance et al. highlight four ways climate change modifies invasion pathways: 1) altering human behavior, 2) changing transport routes and frequencies, 3) modifying natural dispersal via extreme events, 4) reshaping environmental suitability. Each of these shifts increases the risk that non-native species will enter and spread within protected areas. Island protected areas are particularly vulnerable because they contain a disproportionate share of global biodiversity and face greater invasion risk when compared to continental areas. For example, invasive grasses on islands degrade ecosystems and fuel wildfires, leading to the loss of human life and property. In marine ecosystems, new shipping activity in the Arctic and Mediterranean increases the propagule pressure of non-native species in marine protected areas via ballast water and biofouling.  

To address pathway management in a changing climate, the authors propose implementing climate-smart adaptive biosecurity. This is an iterative approach that integrates new technologies and perspectives to anticipate and respond to emerging risks. In the Northeastern United States, this may include assessing future invasion risk as forests migrate northward due to climate change. By linking introduction pathways with impacts of climate change, this framework provides flexibility in management and a path to help strengthen invasive species prevention in protected areas. 

Take home points 

Climate change will interact with invasive species pathways into protected areas by: 

• Increasing propagule pressure through altered human activities (e.g., migration, tourism). 

• Opening and intensifying transport corridors that facilitate introductions (e.g., new shipping routes in the Arctic). 

• Intensifying extreme weather events that spread species across boundaries (e.g., flooding, hurricanes). 

• Shifting climatic suitability, enabling non-natives to expand into new habitats. 

Management Implications 

“Climate-smart adaptive biosecurity” emphasizes flexibility and learning by: 

• Integrating climate-informed horizon scanning and site prioritization to focus prevention on high-risk pathways and species. 

• Using ecological modeling, AI, and emerging surveillance tools (eDNA, bioacoustics, smart sensors) to predict and detect invasions early. 

• Incorporating human dimensions (tourism trends, local livelihoods, cultural practices) into pathway management. 

• Building networks across agencies, researchers, Indigenous and local communities that can improve coordination and information sharing. 

Keywords 

Adaptive biosecurity, climate change, primary and secondary pathways, Global Biodiversity Framework, management prioritization