Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance
Sorte, C. J., Ibáñez, I., Blumenthal, D. M., Molinari, N. A., Miller, L. P., Grosholz, E. D., ... & Dukes, J. S. (2013). Poised to prosper? A cross‐system comparison of climate change effects on native and non‐native species performance. Ecology Letters, 16(2), 261-270. PDF.
Summary
Sorte et al. (2013) performed the first meta-analysis (132 studies from both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems) comparing co-occurring native and non-native species responses to elevated CO2, warming and changes in precipitation. They aimed to assess the combined threat of climate change and biological invasions and to identify drivers that might make particular systems more susceptible to an increase in non-native species. In aquatic/marine systems, increases in temperature and CO2 have a negative effect on native species (mainly animals), potentially given an advantage to non-native aquatic species. In terrestrial systems, increasing CO2 helps all species (mainly plants), but the effect is more positive for non-native plants. In terrestrial systems, both native and non-native plants' performance is enhanced with an increase in precipitation and suppressed with a decrease in precipitation, but there was no significant difference between groups. Studies available to include in this meta-analysis tended to be conducted in temperate ecosystems, with few studies in Africa or Asia - this reduces our confidence that the same results will be true in tropical ecosystems. Sorte et al. (2013) conclude that the competitive advantage non-native species have over native species will be maintained under most climate effects, and enhanced in aquatic systems with warmer temperatures. In terrestrial systems, this study did not provide enough evidence to conclude that non-native species will have any additional advantage because of climate warming or altered precipitation.
Take home points
Non-native species were more responsive to changing climatic conditions, which may be more pronounced in aquatic systems.
In terrestrial systems, non-native species tended to be more facilitated by an increase in resources (higher precipitation), but more suppressed by a decrease in resources (lower precipitation; higher temperature).
Results suggest there is no climate-based reason for non-native species to outperform native species, but existing competitive advantages are likely to be maintained under future climate scenarios.
Management implications
This study used species performance (sensitivity of species to change and maximum responsiveness of species to change) to quantify differences in response to climate change. When monitoring species/habitats, including a measure of performance (e.g. for plants, this could be number of flowers per plant, plant height, or percent cover) is useful for assessing how native vs. non-native species might respond to climate change. This study also highlights how poorly native aquatic species perform with rising temperatures, making them more susceptible to invasion. Supporting water flow and reducing overheating in aquatic systems could make native communities more resilient to invasion.
Keywords
Shifting Seasons; Competitiveness; Meta-analysis; Invasive Plant; Risk Assessment